Tag Archives: NFL football

Detroit Names Matthew Stafford As Starting QB

Posted on July 31, 2010 by Ross Everett

Matthew Stafford has yet to play a regular season NFL game and hes already the Detroit Lions starting quarterback. First year coach Jim Schwartz named Stafford as his starter for the teams opening game of the NFL regular season against the New Orleans Saints. Stafford beat out veteran Daunte Culpepper for the spot, though Schwartz went out of his way to stress that the rookie won the job as opposed to Culpepper losing it.

In announcing Stafford as the starting QB for the Lions, Schwartz made clear that hes very confident with his personnel at the position including third stringer Drew Stanton:

“I’ve had a lot of very tough decisions in the last few days — guys making the 53-man roster or not making it — but none more difficult than at quarterback. We announced to our team this morning that Matt Stafford is going to be our starting quarterback.”

“I’m very, very comfortable with the quarterback position here, not just one and two, but also three. What made this decision difficult was that I think we can win with Daunte Culpepper, I think we can with Matt Stafford, and I think we can win with Drew Stanton.

Stafford indicated that while hes always been confident that hed be named the teams starter he didnt know for sure until Schwartz gave him the word:

“I definitely thought I was going to be the guy, but as competitive as Daunte is, I’m sure he thought he was going to be the guy, too. Coach Schwartz called me in this morning and told me, and I went out and practiced with the first team. That was exciting.”

Despite the Lions dismal 0-16 record a year ago, Stafford stressed that he wants to win:

“I’m going to try to win football games. I think, just like everyone else on this team, that we can go out on Sunday and be competitive against the Saints and give ourselves a chance to win the game. That’s our job.”

Schwartz said that he plans to give his quarterback the opportunity to learn to play QB in the NFL on the job:

“This isn’t an internship. This isn’t a trial basis. He’s our starting quarterback. We said that, to win the job, he had to be ready, and he had to be our best quarterback, and that’s what he has shown.”

He continued with praise for Culpepper:

“Daunte Culpepper is back — there’s no doubt in my mind and there’s no doubt around this league. He’s going to be back as a starting quarterback in this league, and with a high level of success.”

Stafford had some props for Culpepper as well:

“I’m sure it is tough for him, but Daunte’s been great for me and he will continue to be. I can’t think of a better guy to learn from and to have in my corner.”

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Understanding The NFL Point Spread

Posted on February 28, 2010 by Ross Everett

In order to bet on NFL football its important to start with the fundamentals. And were not talking about the Xs and Os of professional football game planning\”were talking about the fundamentals of understanding the wagering side of the equation. There\’s a lot of misunderstanding about what NFL pointspreads mean and how they are setting. A firm grasp of the essential bookmaking concept of setting NFL lines is a prerequisite for sports betting success.

The general public has a tendency to oversimplify the meaning of an NFL pointspread. The conventional wisdom is that it is simply a prediction of which team will win and by how much. There is a component of that in the NFL bookmaking equation, but theres a lot more to it. In theory, a sportsbooks primary goal is to equally divide the action they take on an individual game. If they do their job right, the outcome of the game is irrelevant to the bookmaker. Youll frequently hear clueless sportscasters make inane comments following a big upset like Boy, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas must have lost their shirts on that one or whoever set the line got this one wrong. Thats something that simply cannot be determined from the outcome of the game alone.

Since a bookmakers primary goal in setting NFL betting lines is to equally divide action, they have to make each side of a wagering proposition attractive to a prospective player. For that reason, its more accurate to say that NFL lines are more of a reflection of the betting publics perception of which team will win a game and by how much than anything else. Some NFL teams are considered public teams due to their popularity and/or perceived qualitative skill. So if the numbers in a hypothetical game between Dallas and Cincinnati indicate that the Cowboys should be a -6 favorite a book may open the game at -7 or -7.

In early season wagering there are a few additional factors at play. A bookmaker may consider a teams NFL preseason record for the simple reason that the NFL betting public gives it undue attention. Sharp players know that there is little correlation between a teams preseason success (or lack thereof) and their regular season performance.

Furthermore, its important to understand why NFL lines are moved after the opening numbers are posted. While it may occasionally be due to external factors such as injury or weather, more often than not its a direct result of the money a book is drawing on one side of the proposition or another. If in our hypothetical example above, Dallas opens -7 and not long after the line is moved to -7 that is an indication that the book has received the majority of their bets on the Bengals. The idea is that by moving the line it makes wagers on the side a book wishes to attract money on more attractive. Indeed, many sharp players base their NFL football bets exclusively on line movements.

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